Your dream is a sunk cost: Facing reality with your start-up

This article from the New York Times underscores a point I've made to unemployed friends, my college students, even in articles a few years ago for the Dallas Morning News, and I've alluded to it in this blog, here.

Treat your dream to build a business as a sunk cost.

Feel good Successories posters and legions of Twitter career coaches would have you think otherwise. They've no skin in the game. Of course they're going to tell you to 'go for it'. They aren't investing their savings, their time, their energy.

A sunk cost is a cost that is irretrievably lost. Business professors tell us to ignore them when making go-forward decisions. Any entrepreneur, hell, any gambling addict will tell you that it's hard to do. One more sale, one more roll of the dice, and it's all alright again. But it's not real. Your dream is a sunk cost. No getting it back - that is, it's there, it's been imagined, it exists. No turning back on having the idea. The 'one day'. It's a yearning, and therefore a drain on your energy, but not yet your wallet, or your family. Turn your back on it. Because everything that follows is not, not yet anyway, a sunk cost.

Now, hopefully this allows you a bit more objectivity. Every additional moment you put toward this dream is a sunk cost. An opportunity cost. At some point you invest in research and site location reports, engineering drawings or trips to see investors or check out competitors. Sunk costs of time, energy, initial but modest expense. But you still have money in the bank and a steady job.

The dream, the drawings, the unsigned lease agreement, a logo, and business cards. Sunk costs.


Now the question is, IGNORING your sunk costs, ignoring the biggest sunk cost, that is, IGNORING the fact that this design/store/studio/idea is 'your dream', are you ready to move forward?

Really?

Because if you are really ignoring the 'sunk cost' of this emotionally compelling dream of telling your boss to f- off and instead go it alone, then you need to be able to tell yourself this: That you are sufficiently distanced from this dream such that even if this was someone else's dream, you'd still invest this level of energy and money into it.

Because in the end, dreams aren't real. Sunk costs, on the other hand, are real. And bankruptcy, particularly self-inflicted bankruptcy, is a nightmare.

Okay, still? Great. Dream's over. Wake up and get to work.

Fast and cheap and unsuccessful

New entrepreneurs. Committed to a diet of macaroni, peanut butter and cases of Mountain Dew for late night 'ideation' sessions. They tell me they're going to be better... because they're faster and cheaper. 

Copying what has been done before in a way that is faster or cheaper is a formula for long-term failure.

Faster and cheaper is not better. Better is better.  

Instead, the success formula is a disruption - a new way to look at things, a new way to define your market. Faster and cheaper is a natural order of established markets, so start-ups dedicated to this proposition will be overrun. Even if you go 'all-in', spend all the angel's money, live a life of sleep-deprived sacrifice to build the mousetrap, there is no guarantee of success if all you are chasing is a faster or cheaper way to do an old thing. Faster and cheaper are only useful long-term when they are outgrowths of the new and differentiated.

If all your new idea offers is a faster or cheaper way to do an old thing, think again.  

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When your dreams are a crock.

I wasted some time today to complete an estimate for a modest-sized potential client today.

Kind of a waste, because I’m doing it out of obligation for someone for whom I know will not buy it. It didn’t take too long, so I’m not bothered, but I thought it blog-worthy because for the umpteenth time, its another boot-strapped start-up that I know they’ll stick to their dream instead of facing reality.That reality is that dreams require sacrifice.

Experts will tell you that most start-ups fail due to under-capitalization. I suggest that that is a symptom of a greater issue: Common Oprah pabulum encouraging your dreams. I know, what a downer. "No one ever got anything without dream

s!" Whatever.

Nothing wrong with dreams. “Go get ‘em, Tiger!”

But dreams are only useful when you understand the reality. Not only the plan for when the dream is realized, but also the plan for when it fails. As a mentor to entrepreneurs, I’ve sat through plenty of VC presentations. 70% of the presentations never addressed the Plan B. Never have I seen an initial plan lacking a discussion of risks ever make it past the initial presentation.

The idea of having one’s own business, building one’s new widget, being one’s own boss is too great a draw to allow concerns about the costs, (time to market) runway, and the outside help that is needed to see it through impact your decision, because,

“Follow your dreams!” said Thoreau*.

So off they go.

So when the dream becomes work, when the risks become higher, when set-backs become more common than anticipated, the fledgling entrepreneur takes shortcuts.

Extends credit to the unworthy.

Buys services from the cheapest comer.

Plays Three Card Monty with incoming invoices.

And when the reality of the present overwhelms the dream they had in mind, they hold tight to that dream because in spite of the unpreparedness, in spite of the lack of planning, they

“Hold tight to the dream”. Because that’s what the poster in their office says.

But too often in the self-absorption common to mere mortals, we forget that our dreams are not others’ dreams. And dreams, to paraphrase Ayn Rand, are not claims on reality.

So my rates aren’t in your budget. (As if I believe you ever created a budget.) Yes, Billy Bob was cheaper. That’s fine, Billy knows what he’s worth. Or maybe Billy Bob is chasing his dream too, blind to the reality that you, too, are looking for the easy way out. Life is not a Successories poster.

So I’m not going to lower my rates for your dream. I’m not going to extend you credit for your dream. I’m not going to trim off the preliminary steps I think are critical to success with the project.

I have my own dreams.

*Thoreau never said this.

6 Marketing Lessons from Charlie Sheen

I know that the conventional wisdom would be to create a blog entry that talks to all the massive PR mistakes Charlie Sheen has made over the past few weeks, but what interest is there in that? You don’t need me to point out what self-destructive tool the guy is. However, for all his past and present mistakes, there is wisdom in his peculiar and colorful dictums of late. Here are just six of the ones that have occurred to me recently:

1. "I have one speed, one gear ... go!"
For many marketers, a successful campaign, event, or launch is followed by a congratulatory cocktail, a week off, and too often, months of coasting. Successful marketing is not an isolated activity, but an on-going, kinetic, dynamic motion of experimentation, execution, strategy, and analysis. There is no ‘N’ on the marketing gearbox.

2. "My motto now is you either love or you hate, and you must do so violently."
Trying to position a product or a company to appeal to the largest number of consumers is the surest way I know of becoming invisible to the market. If you want to build a brand with voraciously loyal adherents, you need to expect a number of voracious haters as well.

3. "I'm tired of pretending like I'm not special."
Misplaced (and often insincere) modesty, an ‘aw shucks’ brand that focuses on countering criticism instead of building on its strengths will have a hard time retaining long-lasting brand loyalty among its users. Consumers of a product want reasons to stay loyal, not a dismissal of their preferences. This is a common issue among large entrenched incumbents in esoteric markets who see this positioning as a defensive posture - mostly so they are not seen as all-powerful behemoths. It can lead to overlooking challenges from smaller players who leverage that positioning to illustrate their own brand’s superiority.

4. "I am on a drug; it's called 'Charlie Sheen.' It's not available 'cause if you try it once you will die. Your face will melt off, and children will weep over your exploded body."
While Charlie likely meant this to be interpreted differently, it serves as a reminder that a company ‘on its own drug’ is susceptible to hearing only the sound of its own voice while ignoring the voices of the consuming public. It’s good to recognize your own successes, but its also helpful to listen to the market once in a while and not be ‘drugged’ into hearing only the echoes of your own glorious past.

5. "We are high priest Vatican assassin warlocks. Boom! Print that, people!"
Make sure your positioning statement, your marketing messages, your promotional materials, the overall impression you leave with prospective customers is dynamic, memorable, and thoroughly differentiated. Charlie has done that in spades.

6. "I've got magic. I've got poetry at my fingertips."
Charlie has magic, a winning smile, and a couple of goddesses.What do you have? Trusted vendors, a quality team? An unbeatable product? Recognize your own resources and make certain you are leveraging each for greatest impact.

So if you follow these six tips from the Warlock, You’re more likely to find yourself in the marketing equivalent of “…a tsumani … riding it on a mercury surfboard."

Warning signs

The other night I had an "I Love Lucy" moment – I found myself desperately, and ultimately unsuccessfully, attempting to stem the tide of about 75 PSI of water shooting from what had been the stem control of an upstairs bath.

I had been ignoring a persistent drip for weeks.

Together with a client, I was speaking yesterday with a lovely woman who runs the Diabetes Education Center at a local hospital. The topic soon turned to preventative medicine, and the number of people who discover they have diabetes only after entering the ER with blood sugar levels in the 700s (that’s really high).

They were ignoring the frequent urination, constant thirst, weight loss, fatigue and other warning signs of diabetes.

Last month a neighbor had to be rescued from the side of a busy highway during rush hour when her transmission gave out and she slowly glided to a permanent stop on the gravel shoulder. The car had been recently detailed, however, so it looked sharp as it was hoisted onto the back of the battered tow truck.

She had been ignoring the thump and jolt from the backend of her foreign sedan for months.

And of course, we can all point fingers at the politicians and bankers and brokers and others who ignored the warning signs that have led to the current world financial credit crisis.

What are you ignoring? What are the warning signs in your own business that need attending to?

Are consumer complaints increasing? Is innovation fading? Are too many of your receivables over 120 days out? Do your employees fear the next 'all-employee meeting'? Has cash flow become the dominant topic over the water cooler, instead of tactics and strategy?

None of these scenarios are uncommon in a weakened economy. But what are you doing about it?

There are no easy answers to these problems. But analyzing the problem for weeks isn't helping. The quicker you act and the more decisive the action – any forward action – the greater the likelihood of preventing the situation from truly getting out of, that is, beyond your, control. Once a problem is beyond your control, it is too late and the options for a remedy, such as they are, are never good ones.

Okay, so this post doesn't say much that hasn't been said before. But if you've ignored the same reminders before, here's your chance to act.

Regardless of the specific corrective action required for your company's circumstance, the immediate requirement is communication. Internal and external communication to explain the company's circumstances to employees, partners and customers; reinforcement of company values and vision, and each individual's role in fulfilling the company's mission; the long term and near term future for the organization. And communication is a two –way street as well, that is, remaining open for customers to become real-time sources for feedback and product ideas, perhaps seeking out suppliers willing to extend finance terms, and listening to employees for suggestions regarding improving operational efficiencies.

The important thing is not to ignore the constant drip, drip, drip of market erosion and declining revenues, blindly hoping that a sudden macroeconomic recovery is around the corner, a rising tide that raises all boats. Don't ignore the warning signs. Take action now, because like my plumbing, the 'pressure' to take corrective action now is only building.