Showing posts with label Sunk costs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunk costs. Show all posts

Friday, September 12, 2014

5 reasons to persevere through start-up obstacles

They said it was going to be hard. But you had no idea it would be this hard. Exhaustion, a poor diet, a parade of ‘no’s and disappointments. Plus mentors and advisers, including me, listing reasons to pack it in. It isn't easy to maintain your enthusiasm and energy in the face of all that.

So when should you not shutter your start-up?

The only thing I hate to see more than good people burning cycles on lost causes is to see good people giving up too early on good ideas when in reality the opportunity was far more promising than they could see from their trendy co-located office loft.

Persevere
So when are the discouraging obstacles not an apocalyptic sign, but simply short-term hurdles, perhaps requiring just a bit more effort and diligence? Here are just a few clues that it’s time to stick it out and renew the energy and resources to continue:
1.      Required capital was initially under-estimated (this is common) but doors are still open to you for additional resources, even if from friends and family.  You may be reticent to ask again, and that's a fair concern... and indicative that you are being wise with investors' trust and money. Still, it is your responsibility to manage your enterprise wisely and to sell your vision. But never confuse your very real fiscal responsibility with imagined guilt of the risk both you and investors are taking together.
2.      You’ve not yet introduced your MVP (minimally viable product)... but it is because you’ve made a valid pivot from the original plan. If the delay from these pivots are based on honest and useful customer feedback, the delays are valid and a good reason for asking for more runway. 
3.      Your reasons for delays and obstacles are not excuses. There’s a difference between a problem you cannot control and therefore must accept and overcome, versus a crisis you created or could have changed but chose to ignore.
4.      The market gap that your product/service is intended to fill is still not being adequately filled by established competitors. As long as it will fill a genuine need in the market (presuming you’ve done that diligence) then there is still an opportunity to be exploited.
5.      You can identify all the voices telling you that you cannot do it - because they all sound remarkably like you. They are all inside your own head. Take a step back and look at yourself in the third person. Is the negativity you are hearing from yourself the same you’d tell someone in your identical position? Or would you be kinder, more encouraging while still realistic? 
Like my earlier post giving you good reasons to shut the doors, there are no hard and fast rules, and of course, any one of these are not a guarantee of a successful start-up deserving your continued effort. But just as it is unwise to continue to pursue a start-up out of obligation, it is unwise to make a permanent decision about shuttering it without taking a moment to review the real reasons for your current discouragement.

Few if any start-up situations ever meet ideal expectations. But with a deep breath and a little introspection, you might find that the reality of the situation is far from desperate. 

Friday, September 05, 2014

5 reasons to shutter your start-up.

There's no lack of enthusiastic blogs, posters, and gurus out there encouraging you to follow your dreams and strike out on your own. So I am aware that my contrarian posts can be a real downer, as I’ve written several posts that discourage potential start-ups from, well, starting up, including the fallacy of expecting a ‘better’ product to succeed, or the idea that you should chase your dreams.

But there are great ideas that deserve your attention and enthusiasm. Yet once you’ve already sunk your heart and soul and 401K into your business, when is negative thinking just ‘nattering nabobs of negativity’, and when does it become a warning that something is wrong and you need to get out? After all, the sage tells us that ‘everything is temporary given enough time’, and we all know that even expected obstacles cost more and take longer to overcome than ever often predicted.

So when is enough enough? There are a few clues that it’s time to recognize that it’s time to close the doors:

  1. You, yourself, are exhausted and cannot continue to infuse your discouraged team with requisite energy to soldier on through the current circumstances.
  2. Resources are spent. This seems obvious, but resources are never really ‘gone’, just harder to raise - but if you are spending more time raising funds instead of selling an MVP (minimally viable product), you are on a slippery slope.
  3. You’ve made little progress in overcoming objections from potential users either in fact or positioning.
  4. You’ve missed initial, and extended, deadlines and milestones.
  5. The market gap that the product/service needed to have filled is beginning to be adequately filled by established competitors.
There are no hard and fast rules, and any one of these are not indicative of a start-up needing to be shuttered. But any two or more create an uphill battle that takes the joy, enthusiasm, and health and finances of founders down with it.

Unless your start-up is a cruise line, there’s no glory in going down with the ship. 

Friday, March 29, 2013

Your dream is a sunk cost: Facing reality with your start-up

This article from the New York Times underscores a point I've made to unemployed friends, my college students, even in articles a few years ago for the Dallas Morning News, and I've alluded to it in this blog, here.

Treat your dream to build a business as a sunk cost.

Feel good Successories posters and legions of Twitter career coaches would have you think otherwise. They've no skin in the game. Of course they're going to tell you to 'go for it'. They aren't investing their savings, their time, their energy.

A sunk cost is a cost that is irretrievably lost. Business professors tell us to ignore them when making go-forward decisions. Any entrepreneur, hell, any gambling addict will tell you that it's hard to do. One more sale, one more roll of the dice, and it's all alright again. But it's not real. Your dream is a sunk cost. No getting it back - that is, it's there, it's been imagined, it exists. No turning back on having the idea. The 'one day'. It's a yearning, and therefore a drain on your energy, but not yet your wallet, or your family. Turn your back on it. Because everything that follows is not, not yet anyway, a sunk cost.

Now, hopefully this allows you a bit more objectivity. Every additional moment you put toward this dream is a sunk cost. An opportunity cost. At some point you invest in research and site location reports, engineering drawings or trips to see investors or check out competitors. Sunk costs of time, energy, initial but modest expense. But you still have money in the bank and a steady job.

The dream, the drawings, the unsigned lease agreement, a logo, and business cards. Sunk costs.


Now the question is, IGNORING your sunk costs, ignoring the biggest sunk cost, that is, IGNORING the fact that this design/store/studio/idea is 'your dream', are you ready to move forward?

Really?

Because if you are really ignoring the 'sunk cost' of this emotionally compelling dream of telling your boss to f- off and instead go it alone, then you need to be able to tell yourself this: That you are sufficiently distanced from this dream such that even if this was someone else's dream, you'd still invest this level of energy and money into it.

Because in the end, dreams aren't real. Sunk costs, on the other hand, are real. And bankruptcy, particularly self-inflicted bankruptcy, is a nightmare.

Okay, still? Great. Dream's over. Wake up and get to work.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

10 Steps to an Ineffective Marketing Plan

Lots of Books for Dummies

Browsing in Half Price Books yesterday, I stumbled upon the business section and a multitude of seldom referenced marketing guidebooks with their spines intact, pages pristine, with no notes in the margins. In spite of the fact that there are so many marketing books written yet so many marketing books unread, there seems no end to their creation. In the interest of full disclosure, there is, in fact, a partially completed unpublished marketing tome residing on this hard drive. So, much like we buy diet books instead of dieting and fitness books instead of exercising, businesspeople too will apparently buy marketing books instead of, um, thinking. So perhaps what is necessary isn't a book of to-dos, but of to-don'ts. In this vein, I present my Top Ten List Of Things To Do To Make Your Marketing Plan Completely Ineffective.
  1. Wait. Eventually priorities will change, opportunities fade, deadlines pass, and your choices will dwindle making analysis of them easier.
  2. Evaluate sunk costs and resources as if they are equally as important as to those required going forward.
  3. Analyze and segment data until it is unrelateable to the original objective.
  4. Test, iterate, re-test, and reiterate until your brand, messaging and communications are thoroughly inconsistent.
  5. Apply book learning to the exclusion of real-world knowledge and experience.
  6. Apply real world knowledge and experience to the exclusion of book learning.
  7. Budget based on past sales data.
  8. Use an off-the-shelf, "marketing plan in a minute" template.
  9. Exclude new ideas because they come from outside your industry.
  10. Apply any idea because you heard (insert guru of the day here) say it at a conference.
Eventually, I bought a copy of Joshua Ferris' And Then We Came To The End, about a Chicago advertising agency and its staffers weathering a recession. (No, the coincidence did not escape my notice.)

What are your experiences? What would you add to this list?

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