Analysts, experts, and me

I've been amusing myself lately with the headlines I'm seeing in the business press. All of the experts and analysts that are financial reporters' go-to guys and gals for quotes and insight have something in common: No one is certain. Each one, to an individual, is either hedging - "Manufacturing is likely to rebound, but if China does this or that, or the bailout results in this other thing, then, it is likely to sink further." Or, equally common are out and out incorrect prognostications, such as T Boone Pickens predictions - almost wishes - that "oil won't fall below 120...100... 70... 50".

So in an environment where Kirk Kerkorian has lost billions, Jerry Wang has been forced from Yahoo, Alan Greenspan's portrait at the Federal Reserve is waiting for fresh graffiti, and even Warren Buffett can't turn a buck, I'm ready for my turn on CNBC's Squawk Box.


Here then are the prognostications I made on a recent survey from Chief Executive Magazine:

1. How would you rate business conditions in the US currently? Bad
2. How would you rate employment conditions in the US currently? Bad
3. How would you rate investment opportunities in the US currently? Good
4. How will employment change over the next quarter? Stay the same
5. How do you expect capital spending within your company to change over the next quarter? Stay the same
6. What do you expect the economy will experience over the next quarter? Stagnation (No growth, no decline)

On December 31, 2009:
Dow Jones (currently at 8,932) will be at 9621 points
Oil (currently at $40.50) will be $59 per barrel
Interest Rates (the Fed Funds Rate, currently at 1.00%) will be: 1.00%

Prediction comments:
(I said) Uncertainty is driving the market and the economy; once some certainty arrives with new administration - for good or bad - wild swings will stabilize and the widely oversold market and general malaise will slowly lift.

Confidence comments:
(I said) Business decision-makers will become comfortable de-coupling their decisions in the real world from abstrations like the Dow. But once that fog clears, the impact of government intervention on national debt and as a general signal of the new regulatory environment will be a drag on growth.


So we'll check back in a few months to see how I've done. If I'm right, I'll start a new profession. If I'm wrong, well, I'll join the legions of analysts and experts who now are taking a page from former President Clinton: It all depends on your definition of 'wrong'.

If you were a tree, what kind of tree would you be?

If your company or product were a fictional character, who would it be? It's one of the questions I ask when trying to determine the intended brand perception for a client. And I get more than my share of rolled eyes from the engineers in the room.

But consider your own response to this question: If you were thirsty, where would you likely find an ice-cold Obama? Next to the Dr. Pepper or nearer the energy drinks?

If you called your friend, would you expect to pick up and dial the McCain or are you more likely to just go online and 'poke' them on Obamabook? Maybe you'd discuss the McCain supertanker that is caught in a storm off the gulf coast, or the latest music player from iObama.

You can think about this when you pick up a snack of some organic dried fruit at Obama Foods for your flight to Chicago on McCain Airways.

Okay, the whole thing is silly. But now reverse that:

If you were thirsty, where would you likely find an ice-cold McCain? Next to the Dr. Pepper or nearer the energy drinks?

If you called your friend, would you expect to pick up and dial the Obama or are you more likely to just go online and 'poke' them on McCainbook? Maybe you'd discuss the Obama supertanker that is caught in a storm off the gulf coast, or the latest music player from iMcCain.

You can think about this when you pick up a snack of some organic dried fruit at McCain Foods for your flight to Chicago on Obama Airways.

Relatively speaking, the former made more sense, didn't it? And it proves out the power of branding on not only our perceptions of products, but perceptions of our leaders, our friends, and ourselves.

This important article was sent to me by a designer with whom I do much of Strategy180's branding work. It underscores the power of branding and how it may not only impact the can of soup we put in our grocery basket, but the future leadership of the world's last great superpower.

Perhaps now you might want to budget for that branding study, yes?

To everything there is a season

Something important to consider in these troubled times - the sarcastic wisdom of my favorite cartoonist, Bill Watterson, speaking through the eyes of six-year-old Calvin:

"Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too.

"This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice.

"Dad says the sun isn't going out. He says it's colder because the earth's orbit is taking us farther from the sun. He says winter will be here soon.

"Isn't it sad how some people's grip on their lives is so precarious that they'll embrace any preposterous delusion rather than face an occasional bleak truth?"

The Antique Selectric

A recent back-to-school shopping trip with my pre-teen son did plenty to remind me of the widening generation gap between us. Navigating through brands I'd never heard of and styles that will, one day, define the cultural lowlight of his generation (just as parachute pants defined mine) – helped me acknowledge that the pigment had indeed left my hair, never to return.

An annual report called the Beloit College Mindset List – you may recognize it as common fodder for chatty 'lite rock' morning radio hosts – reminds us all not only of the generation gap and differences in our cultural context, but the pace of change in today's world. This year's study calls out sixty points of reference that the typical 18-year-old, born in 1990, takes for granted. These include:

• Universal Studios has always offered an alternative to Disneyland in Orlando.
• The Tonight Show has always been hosted by Jay Leno.
• Caller ID has always been available on phones.
• IBM has never made typewriters.

Had the Beloit study existed when I entered college, my elders would have likely been reminded that I never knew the country without a space program, had never listened to radio for anything but music, and automobiles always had air conditioning. In turn, upon turning 18, my son will have never known mobile phones without cameras, grasp the concept of a paper map, or have enjoyed music on anything larger than an iPod.

And forget the iconic Selectric… he won't even know IBM as a consumer brand.

And now for something completely different.

Unrelated to my usual marketing rants, here's a little something we may want to think about next time we reach for a bottle of water (credit Arthur Caplan, PhD):

1. Water bottles are of plastic or glass. Both are heavy and costs a bundle in oil to ship
2. About 2 million tons of plastic was used to make bottles for water last year (Plastic is a petroleum product)
3. In the U.S., billions of bottles a year get thrown out. Even if recycling, it costs bundles in gas to haul old bottles to recycling facilities
4. Bottled water is being promoted by global sugar water concerns and boutique outfits who are leveraging our thirst for purity to offset losses in soda
5. According to Beverage Marketing Corp., bottled water consumption has doubled in the US in the past decade. Americans now drink more water from bottles overall than any other nation. Note, however, that we are only tenth among the 'enlightened' nations of the world in drinking bottled water per capita, trailing Italy, Mexico, Spain, France, Germany and Switzerland

Okay, so you aren't a lefty enviromentalist and are far more pragmatic and rational than your left-coast Hollywood elite types who worship at Al Gore's pennyloafers. Then think of this: Why pay dollars per gallon for bottled water packaged with a cool logo when you can get pure tap water for pennies? This ain't Mexico City.

In other words, if you want to do something to really reduce global warming and cut down the earth’s pollution burden, or even lower our dependence on foreign oil, stop buying bottled water.