All Work and No Play

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Tonight, someone owes me an email and isn't delivering. And I don't really mind, because as you can tell by the dates of these posts, its been a month since I had the time to muse over a post so I'll enjoy the rare time. I've been working awfully hard lately, on an interesting but demanding project. I guess it doesn't help that I'm also battling some sort of weird respitory thing and fighting insomnia.

My candle burneth on both ends.

So that brings me to offer this public service announcement for those of you who are weary of the world of work. Yes, I know that we are glad to have a job and feel it unsympathetic to those who wish they had a job to complain about, but as a Forbes ad asked years ago: "Which is worse, to be laid off on Friday or to pick up the slack on Monday?" There's not much to be said about either.

Take a moment and review these websites... and remember to frown into the screen as you peruse these helpful sites. No, not because you'll be frustrated or angry, quite the opposite. Frown so others think you are researching something critical. Because, after all, you will be.

http://my-bad-habits.blogspot.com/ Ian Newby-Clark is a professor of psychology who studies our habits and offers interesting insights as to why we do what we do and why we don't really need to.

http://www.revrun.com/ Philospohy and wisdom from an innovator in the hip-hop movement. (Why do you look so surprised? Because Run has something to say or because I know who he is?)

http://lifehacker.com/ Simplicity for the geek in all of us.

http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/ Author Tim Ferriss is a divisive character, but he's always good for a little wisdom or interesting story here and there.

http://zenhabits.net/ Leo Babauta says it best on his site: "Zen Habits is about finding simplicity in the daily chaos of our lives."

Do you have other insights or websites on self-improvement, life balance, or simplicity? I'd love to hear about them!

Fear and the American Consumer

In a recent article in his newsletter Drum Beat News, my colleague Jack Howe writes of the death of 'conspicuous consumption':

"Luxury buying is off in a major way - reports from Neiman's, Saks, and all top brand name retails report the same cut back from their consumers. So the company that must survive is making sure they offer solid business cases with every offer. Understanding the consequence of how the CEO, at the business your selling to, gets paid can pay off for you, the seller. As consumers, we are still spending, just not in the ways we were before. It is highly unlikely, given the cost of bailing us out of our current economic situation, that we will in our life time, see a return to what we knew as conspicuous consumption."

Interesting also is his observation in the same article that the increasing homogeneity of automobile design also points to the idea that 'standing out' is 'out'.

Whether or not I agree that recent poor auto design is a sign of a larger cultural shift, the apparent death of 'conspicuous consumption' is an interesting argument and worth evaluating from a marketing perspective. Given rising national and personal debt, a worldwide credit crisis, inflationary pressures on energy and food stuffs, plus the impact of environmental awareness and regulation, comfort with high levels of consumption no longer looks - or feels- 'right'. There are even anecdotal stories of monied customers foregoing store-branded shopping bags in order to keep a lower profile on their ill-timed retail therapy.

For years many marketers have relied primarily on brand prestige (associating personal attributes onto or from a product) and constancy (that is, 'I know what I'm getting', aka 'no one ever got fired for buying IBM') to maintain market share and margins. With the new normal of a slower consumer engine on the economy, we must re-evaluate what motivates customers now. I see these four are among the leading motivators:

Value: The rise of the big box discount chains, while suspect themselves in this era of the 'new normal', provide insight into consumers desire to buy in bulk, reduce packaging, and generally 'stock up' in what is perceived to be a very volatile period in our history.

Necessity: Discretionary spending is off, minimalism is in. Name your own example: Even here in truck-crazy Texas, Hummers are criticized, while the sparse Prius hybrid is envied. Vacations are out, staycations are in.

Savings: Once arguably in negative territory, personal savings in the United States has turned to a pace not seen in years, some estimates now as high as 4%. Anti-debt radio personality Dave Ramsey has a slogan that says it best: "...the paid off home mortgage has taken the place of the BMW as the status symbol of choice."

Fear: Arguably the previous three motivators are a result of fear to one degree or another. But this is a non-specific, generalized fear of a quickly shifting geo-political and economic landscape. Remember what happened to action movies after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989? Stallone had to find new enemies because the Ruskies were our pals. It was easy in an earlier era when Russians were the bad guys and we had a collective target for our enmity. But the new political environment, unnamed terrorists have exacted far more damage to our lives and psyches in the last decade than the Russians did in the prior fifty years.

Once, leveraging FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) was the last refuge of marketers unable to sell a product or solution on merits. Today, it seems to be the self-imposed primary motivation of consumers. And in a world where banks are bankrupt, car manufacturers are nationalized, real estate is no longer an inflation hedge, terrorists have us disrobing to get on an airplane, and the national debt clock needs more light bulbs, who could blame them?

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Analysts, experts, and me

I've been amusing myself lately with the headlines I'm seeing in the business press. All of the experts and analysts that are financial reporters' go-to guys and gals for quotes and insight have something in common: No one is certain. Each one, to an individual, is either hedging - "Manufacturing is likely to rebound, but if China does this or that, or the bailout results in this other thing, then, it is likely to sink further." Or, equally common are out and out incorrect prognostications, such as T Boone Pickens predictions - almost wishes - that "oil won't fall below 120...100... 70... 50".

So in an environment where Kirk Kerkorian has lost billions, Jerry Wang has been forced from Yahoo, Alan Greenspan's portrait at the Federal Reserve is waiting for fresh graffiti, and even Warren Buffett can't turn a buck, I'm ready for my turn on CNBC's Squawk Box.


Here then are the prognostications I made on a recent survey from Chief Executive Magazine:

1. How would you rate business conditions in the US currently? Bad
2. How would you rate employment conditions in the US currently? Bad
3. How would you rate investment opportunities in the US currently? Good
4. How will employment change over the next quarter? Stay the same
5. How do you expect capital spending within your company to change over the next quarter? Stay the same
6. What do you expect the economy will experience over the next quarter? Stagnation (No growth, no decline)

On December 31, 2009:
Dow Jones (currently at 8,932) will be at 9621 points
Oil (currently at $40.50) will be $59 per barrel
Interest Rates (the Fed Funds Rate, currently at 1.00%) will be: 1.00%

Prediction comments:
(I said) Uncertainty is driving the market and the economy; once some certainty arrives with new administration - for good or bad - wild swings will stabilize and the widely oversold market and general malaise will slowly lift.

Confidence comments:
(I said) Business decision-makers will become comfortable de-coupling their decisions in the real world from abstrations like the Dow. But once that fog clears, the impact of government intervention on national debt and as a general signal of the new regulatory environment will be a drag on growth.


So we'll check back in a few months to see how I've done. If I'm right, I'll start a new profession. If I'm wrong, well, I'll join the legions of analysts and experts who now are taking a page from former President Clinton: It all depends on your definition of 'wrong'.

...dogs and cats living together - mass hysteria!

Along with this post's title, one of my favorite movie quips, offered in deadpan delivery by Howard Ramis in Ghostbusters, is "Sorry, Venkman, I'm terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought."

Yet this is a lot of what we've been hearing lately from colleagues and pundits. But this isn't the End Of Days brought about by the Sta-Puft marshmallow man, but rather it is a long overdue reminder to focus, work hard, live within our means, and reprioritize.

While things will change over the next days and weeks, and some of it may perhaps eventually change my tone in this post, right now I'm not seeing a lot of bad news so much as a lot of fear and uncertainty, and opportunity always arrives with uncertainty. Buy into the fear and sell into the optimism. It's Warren Buffett's approach for the markets and should be all marketers' as well. Our response to a difficult situation changes our ability to handle it.

No doubt, things are going to stink in the near term, because marketers have by and large never properly positioned themselves or the function for the key role it should assume during a market slowdown, opting instead to stammer defensively and nervously paint lambs blood above our office doors. Still, a ten trillion dollar debt should worry us. The potential for a nuclear Iran is disurbing. Climate change has me checking under the bed for the bogeyman and Al Gore.

But this? Nothing that a little ingenuity and informed strategic thinking can't overcome. Now is not the time for marketers to be running for the exits. Companies that spend this time looking for greater efficiencies and new approaches will maintain in a slowdown and position themselves for exceptional share growth when the money starts flowing again.

There are a number of studies to support this. Download a few. Discover specific ideas. Seek knowledgeable advice. Recalibrate.

Smile.

To everything there is a season

Something important to consider in these troubled times - the sarcastic wisdom of my favorite cartoonist, Bill Watterson, speaking through the eyes of six-year-old Calvin:

"Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too.

"This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice.

"Dad says the sun isn't going out. He says it's colder because the earth's orbit is taking us farther from the sun. He says winter will be here soon.

"Isn't it sad how some people's grip on their lives is so precarious that they'll embrace any preposterous delusion rather than face an occasional bleak truth?"