Lookin' for latte in all the wrong places

When I was last in Zurich, in 2006 (negotiating a settlement regarding trademark infringement by Swisscom - shame I don't ski) I took a few hours to explore the city on foot. After I had passed the fourth Starbucks, it struck me that I had likely traveled 16 to 20 city blocks, so made my way back to the hotel. I had counted my distance in Starbucks, not blocks. The same could have been done in every American city and virtually any other city in Europe. And then.

Three years later, Starbucks has shuttered hundreds of locations worldwide and what was once an iconic brand and a unique experience now looks to McDonalds Value Meals for salvation. The thinking must be that they are looking for ways to ingrain Starbucks into our routines the way McDonalds has done. Yet in addition to the grab and go $5 latte market, Starbucks was always a destination for the self-employed, the freelancer, the coffee networking types to meet and discuss business. With this in mind, just how much business do Starbucks executives think is conducted at McDonalds?

In the interest of fairness and full disclosure, I am not privy to extensive research regarding Starbucks customer base. Anecdotally, however, these types of meetings, good for about $10-15 a table and high table turn, are a critical market - and in my neighborhood, Starbucks are losing these common meet-ups to Paneras Bread. Paneras welcomes this type of guest with large tables and free wifi, which activates with a polite reminder regarding etiquette in the use of the facilities. (Starbucks is still trying to wring revenue from agreements with AT&T and T-Mobile.)

There are other local restaurants, regional and national chains that serve a similar market, but few are as effective as Panera at creating an environment as specifically well-suited to the needs of the increasing legions of the 1099 workforce.

Last year the 1.3 billion (revenue) Paneras stock soared from $32 a share in January to about $50 a share at the end of the year with a debt-free balance sheet. McDonalds, meanwhile, struggles with systemwide sales off by 4.6% in February. McDonalds might be aspiration for Starbucks in size and brand ubiquity, but Paneras reflects the needs of its customers.

In latte as in life, it is important not only to understand your competition, but to be certain that you've properly identified who they are.