Zeitgeist 2008

Cover via AmazonI'm currently halfway through the book Click (the one by Bill Tancer, not Nick Hornby); full title Click: What Millions of People Are Doing Online and Why it Matters. Tancer, who runs the research effort at online market research firm Hitwise, analyzes search patterns from search engine data and addresses the often surprising results and challenges us about what we've believed about the psychology of consumers. So when Google printed this "Google Zeitgeist" for 2008 – snack food for stat brats such as myself – I had to look to see for myself what Bill Tancer spends his day analyzing.

Interesting is the country-by-country breakdown of top 10 search terms and the "How to" list. #2? "How to kiss."

Some lonely gamers out there, still.

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• We Are What We Search

Analysts, experts, and me

I've been amusing myself lately with the headlines I'm seeing in the business press. All of the experts and analysts that are financial reporters' go-to guys and gals for quotes and insight have something in common: No one is certain. Each one, to an individual, is either hedging - "Manufacturing is likely to rebound, but if China does this or that, or the bailout results in this other thing, then, it is likely to sink further." Or, equally common are out and out incorrect prognostications, such as T Boone Pickens predictions - almost wishes - that "oil won't fall below 120...100... 70... 50".

So in an environment where Kirk Kerkorian has lost billions, Jerry Wang has been forced from Yahoo, Alan Greenspan's portrait at the Federal Reserve is waiting for fresh graffiti, and even Warren Buffett can't turn a buck, I'm ready for my turn on CNBC's Squawk Box.


Here then are the prognostications I made on a recent survey from Chief Executive Magazine:

1. How would you rate business conditions in the US currently? Bad
2. How would you rate employment conditions in the US currently? Bad
3. How would you rate investment opportunities in the US currently? Good
4. How will employment change over the next quarter? Stay the same
5. How do you expect capital spending within your company to change over the next quarter? Stay the same
6. What do you expect the economy will experience over the next quarter? Stagnation (No growth, no decline)

On December 31, 2009:
Dow Jones (currently at 8,932) will be at 9621 points
Oil (currently at $40.50) will be $59 per barrel
Interest Rates (the Fed Funds Rate, currently at 1.00%) will be: 1.00%

Prediction comments:
(I said) Uncertainty is driving the market and the economy; once some certainty arrives with new administration - for good or bad - wild swings will stabilize and the widely oversold market and general malaise will slowly lift.

Confidence comments:
(I said) Business decision-makers will become comfortable de-coupling their decisions in the real world from abstrations like the Dow. But once that fog clears, the impact of government intervention on national debt and as a general signal of the new regulatory environment will be a drag on growth.


So we'll check back in a few months to see how I've done. If I'm right, I'll start a new profession. If I'm wrong, well, I'll join the legions of analysts and experts who now are taking a page from former President Clinton: It all depends on your definition of 'wrong'.

If you were a tree, what kind of tree would you be?

If your company or product were a fictional character, who would it be? It's one of the questions I ask when trying to determine the intended brand perception for a client. And I get more than my share of rolled eyes from the engineers in the room.

But consider your own response to this question: If you were thirsty, where would you likely find an ice-cold Obama? Next to the Dr. Pepper or nearer the energy drinks?

If you called your friend, would you expect to pick up and dial the McCain or are you more likely to just go online and 'poke' them on Obamabook? Maybe you'd discuss the McCain supertanker that is caught in a storm off the gulf coast, or the latest music player from iObama.

You can think about this when you pick up a snack of some organic dried fruit at Obama Foods for your flight to Chicago on McCain Airways.

Okay, the whole thing is silly. But now reverse that:

If you were thirsty, where would you likely find an ice-cold McCain? Next to the Dr. Pepper or nearer the energy drinks?

If you called your friend, would you expect to pick up and dial the Obama or are you more likely to just go online and 'poke' them on McCainbook? Maybe you'd discuss the Obama supertanker that is caught in a storm off the gulf coast, or the latest music player from iMcCain.

You can think about this when you pick up a snack of some organic dried fruit at McCain Foods for your flight to Chicago on Obama Airways.

Relatively speaking, the former made more sense, didn't it? And it proves out the power of branding on not only our perceptions of products, but perceptions of our leaders, our friends, and ourselves.

This important article was sent to me by a designer with whom I do much of Strategy180's branding work. It underscores the power of branding and how it may not only impact the can of soup we put in our grocery basket, but the future leadership of the world's last great superpower.

Perhaps now you might want to budget for that branding study, yes?

Spam sham

Spending and the stock market aren't the only things falling these days.

Worldwide, fewer and fewer consumers are bothering to open commercial emails. This from a study by eMail list management firm MailerMailer.

Their study reveals that the typical e-mail open rate for targeted marketing messages declined to 13.20% in the first half of this year, compared with 16.11% in the first half of last year. Click-through numbers fell too, from 3.18% in the first half of '07 to 2.73% in the first half of '08.

The data collected by MailerMailer indicated that the numbers between industries differed, for example, finance, government, telecom and even spiritual-oriented email messages having more success than others.
Supporting reports from other earlier surveys, pithy subject lines (<35 characters) performed better than longer subject headings, with an open rate of 19.6% and a 3.1% click-through rate versus 14.8% and a click-through rate of only 1.9%.

None of this slow down has apparently caught up with the marketing plans of most retailers, where SEO and email remain tops of their online marketing planning efforts. I believe that this is as due to marketing's continued search for a measureable and accountable media as emails' continued, though decreasing, effectiveness.

It has been reported that one hit out of a million emails (that's a .000001% click-through rate) makes the effort worth it to fraudulent spammers, so by comparison, even a 2.73% click-through rate is likely to remain a prize bird among competing turkeys this holiday advertising season.

A drop of sanity into a sea of panic

With the market in a freefall, credit tightening, and budgets shrinking, it seems very dark indeed. But before you simply accept a slash and burn budget number, you might want to reevaluate the assumptions from the executive suite.

They may be saying ‘people aren’t buying!’ – But people are buying, and they will continue to do so.

Who is buying? Most are the same folks that bought from you before (let's call them 'customers', just like we did last year) and some folks that bought from your competitors (let's call them 'lost opportunities', just like we did last year). There will be a few net new customers to the market, depending on the industry, but we can't generally count on that, so let's concentrate on the first two.

It's actually all pretty clear once you get out of the forest and identify the trees.

Those who are buying, although there are only as many or perhaps fewer than last year, still are seeking to replace or in some cases upgrade whatever they've purchased in past years. They'll be bargain hunting, negotiating aggressively, and demanding more for less. But they're buying. They'll look for savings and quicker ROI, but they're buying. They'll be looking for lower energy use and longer warranty periods, but they're buying. They are definitely seeking better credit terms. But they're buying.

Your marketing for the New Year needs to look closely – almost exclusively - at these 'customers' and previously 'lost opportunities'. The goal is to apply limited marketing resources to activities that protect and expand your current customers. The slowdown in net new business allows opportunity for nurturing what you have, that is, given the macro-economic environment, perhaps aggressive business development efforts should be scaled back in favor of one-on-one account development. Instead of making Sisyphean attempts to expand the pie, demand a larger piece of the existing one through campaigns targeting competitors – particularly who have made the mistake of weakening their own marketing and sales efforts in a short-term effort to 'weather the storm'. Look to shore up market share so that when the inevitable turnaround comes your company hits the ground running… from a starting point in the distance.

People are buying. But the only way to be certain you are selling what they are buying is to listen to what they need, deliver it with a little of what they want, and anticipate what they're going to need next.

I'd say I was brilliant if it hadn't been so obvious.

"It’s too late for Vista, and my humble prediction is that it will go away and undergo a retooling - perhaps a later integration of key features into a different OS release. "

- Me, Your Humble Blogger, in a March blog entry, "When Did The Guys From Delta House Start Running Microsoft?"

~Seven months later~

Microsoft Introduces Windows 7, Ending Vista Brand - New York Times

"Microsoft introduced what it said would be a slimmer and more responsive version of its Windows operating system on Tuesday, while unceremoniously dropping the brand name Vista for the new product... Other new features in this very early version included an enhanced and more flexible task-bar, more powerful search features, and an easier-to-use home network and file sharing. There was also a hint that Microsoft plans to revise Windows 7 to take advantage of the coming wave of multicore microprocessors from Intel and Advanced Micro Devices. Mr. Sinofsky said the company would give more details on the ability of the new program to handle up to 256 processors."

Its a damn shame that my brilliant prognostications do not extend to the stock market.

Pepsi for Obama?

Here's the new look for Pepsi. I know I'm not alone in recognizing the logo as something strikingly familiar to a select number of yard signs around town this time of year. Pepsi and Obama - are both the choice of a new generation?

Frankly, the design does nothing for me, as I'm old enough to recognize the type design as something retro from the time when my college roommate was experimenting with 'Flock of Seagulls' hair, and my sister wrote her 'e's like that back in the late 70s. Alternatively, there is something modern and Anglo/European about the look, so the ads for this sugar water may eventually feature sublime smiles, pastel dress shirts and objectionable ties.

In an interesting use of new(est) media, to get the word out Pepsi released the design to thought leaders in social media. So the fact that now I'm blogging about it means the new look is viral. I'm officially a marketing virus.

(Photo courtesy Peter Shankman)

...dogs and cats living together - mass hysteria!

Along with this post's title, one of my favorite movie quips, offered in deadpan delivery by Howard Ramis in Ghostbusters, is "Sorry, Venkman, I'm terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought."

Yet this is a lot of what we've been hearing lately from colleagues and pundits. But this isn't the End Of Days brought about by the Sta-Puft marshmallow man, but rather it is a long overdue reminder to focus, work hard, live within our means, and reprioritize.

While things will change over the next days and weeks, and some of it may perhaps eventually change my tone in this post, right now I'm not seeing a lot of bad news so much as a lot of fear and uncertainty, and opportunity always arrives with uncertainty. Buy into the fear and sell into the optimism. It's Warren Buffett's approach for the markets and should be all marketers' as well. Our response to a difficult situation changes our ability to handle it.

No doubt, things are going to stink in the near term, because marketers have by and large never properly positioned themselves or the function for the key role it should assume during a market slowdown, opting instead to stammer defensively and nervously paint lambs blood above our office doors. Still, a ten trillion dollar debt should worry us. The potential for a nuclear Iran is disurbing. Climate change has me checking under the bed for the bogeyman and Al Gore.

But this? Nothing that a little ingenuity and informed strategic thinking can't overcome. Now is not the time for marketers to be running for the exits. Companies that spend this time looking for greater efficiencies and new approaches will maintain in a slowdown and position themselves for exceptional share growth when the money starts flowing again.

There are a number of studies to support this. Download a few. Discover specific ideas. Seek knowledgeable advice. Recalibrate.

Smile.

To everything there is a season

Something important to consider in these troubled times - the sarcastic wisdom of my favorite cartoonist, Bill Watterson, speaking through the eyes of six-year-old Calvin:

"Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too.

"This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice.

"Dad says the sun isn't going out. He says it's colder because the earth's orbit is taking us farther from the sun. He says winter will be here soon.

"Isn't it sad how some people's grip on their lives is so precarious that they'll embrace any preposterous delusion rather than face an occasional bleak truth?"

The Commercials About Nothing

While Jerry Seinfeld broke new ground with Seinfeld, his Show About Nothing, by proving that a story could be woven around no particular plotline, the advertisements for Microsoft's troubled Vista OS in which he stars do, it turns out, require a plot.

While television advertisements are essentially just sixty-second stories, the very purpose of a spot - to inform as well as entertain - makes the idea that advertisements need to have a plot self-evident. (Or at least evident to this self.) While a show about nothing is entertaining, the Seinfeld-esque ads starring Bill and Jerry were roundly critcized and accomplished nothing in the way of brand-building.

It didn't take long (just days, apparently) before Microsoft itself got past the infatuation with their sudden hipness (albeit borrowed from one of the hippest people of... 1994) and recognized that the ads were, in the end, about nothing, and would likely result in, well, nothing. They've now pulled them.

Microsoft's take is that because media buys are done months in advance, it 'proves' the ads were meant to be discontinued. Except we all know that cancellations are done with a phone call, so the idea that the end of the Seinfeld campaign was planned is, in my view, preposterous.

Wunderkind Alex Bogusky of Crispin+Porter+Bogusky has been profiled as a creative savior to the stale Microsoft, so what impact this will have on the agency's hold on the historically transient Microsoft account - and Bogusky's luster - has yet to be seen. As for me, I think Alex and team will prove resilient and go on to perform exceptionally well.

Too bad the same can't be said of Microsoft's Vista OS.

Supercomm Returns

Remember Supercomm?

'Back in the day', as I catch myself using phrases my father once did, Supercomm was the 'it' event of the telecom industry. It was the type of event where if you were in the business you had to launch something, or close a deal, or both, and then come back year after year with a bigger, better display - this show sucked the life out of many annual marketing budgets. And like car shows and builder shows, long before American Idol it was a haven for singer-dancers to take a break from waiting tables and be discovered in an exhibitors booth – by showcasing their unique talent of staying in key while rhyming "Motorola".

Sponsors TIA and USTelecom had split the event years ago, each claiming the mantle of Supercomm to fair to middlin' success, but in recent years their shows came together again as NXTcomm. Now, realizing that even years on from its heyday the name Supercomm has cachet, and with the June 09 Chicago event Supercomm is once again Supercomm.

According to the news release, TIA and USTelecom say the name change reflects recent developments in communications. That's a political statement in a political year. It's clear to me and other observers that the Supercomm cachet means a return to old style 'if you aren't here, you're not anywhere' power the organizers would like to regain. The demise of Supercomm was followed by confusion, weakness in both events, and general dissatisfaction with trade shows in telecom. I count myself among many irritated exhibitors who wanted TIA and USTelecom to reunite – which they did as NXTcom, then, now, properly, again as SuperComm.

Bring out the rented ficus and double padded orange carpet. I've clients to call.

The (Burger) King of Online Advertising

While Outdoor advertising is mostly ugly, television ads universally inane, and radio advertising has arguably the worst creative (few creatives are experienced enough to use the medium well or have the budgets to maintain high production values) it is actually online advertising that I find the most annoying. However, as a nascent medium, the approaches used continue to evolve and banners, particularly flash banners, have continued to progress from the aggravatingly distracting (think lowermybills.com and their dancing video clips) to the growing movement toward branded entertainment. Google itself has created an entire department within their AdWords franchise to develop the concept.

Branded entertainment takes an established business model and moves it to the web. New content is being developed with the goal to entertain, not distract the user. The result is more and more engaged viewers, and a more positive brand association between the user and the sponsor. The latest 'name' to develop this type of material is Seth McFarland of Fox Television's "No Way I'm Letting My Kid Watch That" er, "The Family Guy". He is creating unique "webisodes" that will be syndicated through AdSense to sites targeting 18-34 year old men. The first ones from the Family Guy creator are sponsored by Burger King, which places an animated ad (also by McFarland) featuring the BK king mascot runs before the animated short plays. The content is ostensibly unrelated to Burger King or its products.

MacFarlane indicates that creating the webisodes frees him from the constraints of television (Really? It's Fox, its thirty minutes, not thirty seconds, and I don't find The Family Guy particularly restrained!) So McFarlane gets another creative outlet, Burger King gets access to prospective burger eaters, and those burger eaters are entertained instead of merely distracted.

Online advertising is quickly becoming the Cinderella of advertisers. Once only favored by media buyers, agency and other creatives are also now seeing the potential of building a brand online by entertaining and engaging customers online, not annoying them into submission.

Of Babies and Bathwater

This blog post, ‘Fire Your PR Agency’ by Jason Calacanis, founder and CEO of Mahalo, was sent to me by a client and I thought it’d blog well, so I’ve taken what was to be my email response and posted it here.

I agree that you can, conceivably, do PR yourself. But I think the value in the article is more useful if titled “How to support your PR firm’s efforts”. Better to keep the baby and change the bathwater, as it were. Jason is a natural press agent himself even if he doesn’t own up to it - so PR comes easily, naturally to him… and what he is suggesting requires a completely different set of skills than most entrepreneurs have and therefore they do require the support of a quality PR outfit.

I know plenty of PR firms, however, that can do more harm than good. In fact, I can provide a list. I’ve hired and fired several. Often because my colleagues and I were their lone source of ideas, which flies in the face of what Jason is suggesting, as he thinks this is a good plan. I don’t. While I appreciated the recognition that I was, in fact, brilliant, I’d have liked to have other ideas heard as well. It gets lonely when the only voice you hear is your own. This is not the same as providing your PR firm with information, resources, and access, which is critical and as this blog goes on to recommend. It is a partnership between client and agency.

Still, although I believe his premise – that you can do this yourself – is flawed, he makes some excellent points:

1. Be the Brand: It is easy for Jason to say this, he is his brand. This is useful if the leadership is savvy, well-spoken and political, or at least enthusiastic. Not every CEO is, and in fact, it is sometimes dangerous for firms to become too attached to their founder as it limits later growth, flexibility and potential M&A activity.

2. Be everywhere: This is simply blocking and tackling for start-ups. Too many engineer types think their better mousetrap will drive people to their door. Well, for that I have one word: Betamax.

3. Always pick up the check: The most important point Jason makes in the entire blog post is here: “If you're not a social person, learn to be, because it's your job if you're at a startup company.” See my comment above, #1.

4. Pitching as Jason uses it here is a euphemism for selling. The best PR opportunities aren’t ‘sold’, just like few of the best products are actually ‘sold’. That’s just PR 101. But I know that too few PR types have graduated that class, and others, while aware of it, are pressured by their clients or bosses to do just that. Sell, sell, sell. Ink, ink, ink. I once had a PR agency drop a couple of three ring binders on the conference table to indicate the amount of press they generated for a similar firm. Leafing through it, it amounted to page after page of one paragraph reprints of press releases. And this was a nationally recognized PR firm. Oddly, scrolling to the end of his post, Jason comments to measure press by the pound. Bullsh*t. You can’t blog about targeting appropriately and suggest measuring success by the pound in the same post. That’s oxymoronic.

5. The critical comment in point #5? “Spend just 30 minutes researching the journalist you're pitching.” PR folks can be lazy. Hire ones who aren’t.

6. His point #6 essentially states to make certain the client, not the agency, has the journalist relationship. Actually, both is important, but once again, good common sense is so rare it bears repeating.

7. Number 7’s key takeaway: “Your job as a subject is to say things concisely and with few words.” Not a reason to fire a PR agency. A good reason to have one, even if they only act as editors.

8. Invite people to "swing by" your office. Of course. Journalists are supposed to become your friends. Invite your friends for a visit. Remember what we learned in Kindergarten: To have a friend, be a friend.

9. Attach your brand to a movement - absolutely. But this works only if the environment allows for it. Generally good business advice, but certainly not a reason to fire a PR firm. A good PR firm can find opportunities to do just that.

10. Embrace small media outlets. Again, PR 101.

Further, don’t mistake media relations (making certain you are visible, acting as a resource for reporters, etceteras) for public relations. The former is easier and often used by weak PR firms as an indication of progress. It isn’t. Media relations is a tool, not an objective. Also, regarding hiring PR firms: The key is in the evaluation, and in the evaluation, the key is the people. Make certain it isn’t the A team selling the agency and the B team doing the work. Know who is on the account and their backgrounds, and hold them to their commitments. They need to be savvy, connected, creative, inventive. This needs to be determined upfront, because success or failure in PR can only be measured on the back end.

The Antique Selectric

A recent back-to-school shopping trip with my pre-teen son did plenty to remind me of the widening generation gap between us. Navigating through brands I'd never heard of and styles that will, one day, define the cultural lowlight of his generation (just as parachute pants defined mine) – helped me acknowledge that the pigment had indeed left my hair, never to return.

An annual report called the Beloit College Mindset List – you may recognize it as common fodder for chatty 'lite rock' morning radio hosts – reminds us all not only of the generation gap and differences in our cultural context, but the pace of change in today's world. This year's study calls out sixty points of reference that the typical 18-year-old, born in 1990, takes for granted. These include:

• Universal Studios has always offered an alternative to Disneyland in Orlando.
• The Tonight Show has always been hosted by Jay Leno.
• Caller ID has always been available on phones.
• IBM has never made typewriters.

Had the Beloit study existed when I entered college, my elders would have likely been reminded that I never knew the country without a space program, had never listened to radio for anything but music, and automobiles always had air conditioning. In turn, upon turning 18, my son will have never known mobile phones without cameras, grasp the concept of a paper map, or have enjoyed music on anything larger than an iPod.

And forget the iconic Selectric… he won't even know IBM as a consumer brand.

The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce

This, from the New York Times:

"...nearby was Anton Zimin, 26, an advertising copywriter, who said he was quite familiar with (a recently deceased novelist, radical, and historian) but doubted that others in his generation were. He said people his age have lost touch with the struggles of their parents and grandparents.

"The problem is that now, it's all about consumption - this spirit that has engulfed everybody," Mr. Zimin said. "People prefer to consume everything, the simplest things, and the faster, the better."

The radical author to which the 26 year old refers is Solzhenitsyn. The consumerism he laments is not American, as the young copywriter is Russian. He speaks of the consumerism of Russia.

In this age of instant gratification and the global village of modern communication, what it took America to bring upon itself in 50 years of mass consumerism, Russia has done in half the time. In the dog years that technology offers, I figure they'll be mirroring our insurmountable national debt, credit crisis and housing crunch by next May. Sarcasm aside, there have always been those who looked to burgeoning economies abroad and spoke of the opportunities to be had there - and these still exist. Moreover, so do opportunities to do it better this time, correct old mistakes, and find new solutions. Unfortunately, between China's dismal environmental record and Russia's corruption, this opportunity may already passed for those countries' leaders, but not yet for the companies looking to build a better world there, and back here at home.

One of these things are not like the other

What do you do when you spend big bucks to outfit and sponsor the USA Olympic Basketball team, only to discover that a key member is not part of your stable of endorsers? The US roundball team was recently photographed in Las Vegas, and questions have been raised regarding how Dwight Howard is curiously positioned, as he is the only member of the team not endorsed by Nike (instead, he shills for Adidas). It is an interesting statement on the importance of brand identity not only in the product design and advertising areas, in a broader contexts as well. For more on the intriguing "daNike Code" conspiracy, it is laid out in this interesting blog entry from CNBC's sports business reporter, Darren Rovell: http://www.cnbc.com/id/25513177

Happy Half Year

Ask any self-respecting eight year old their age, and if it has been more than six months from their birthday, they’ll proudly declare their age – “eight” “And a half”

And so it should be with business, taking time to note our progress at the halfway point, acknowledge our growth and correct our mistakes। If you even have a written marketing plan you are further ahead than 70% of businesses, according to some reports, and if you ever look at it to benchmark progress and plan activities, I’d bet that number soars to 90%। Too often we allow the business plan or marketing plan to be created and then sit on the shelf, a handsome trophy of several months’ work, to be dusted off and updated in every consecutive year। This July, let’s look at doing something completely different, as the guys of Monty Python might say, and actually evaluate the document and our efforts against it to date। How many projects are complete? How much growth has been realized? How many goals reached? How many assumptions disproved? Which projects no longer valid?

Then use the start of the second half of the year to recalibrate and refocus, because unlike that eight – and a half – year old, our company’s growth cannot be presumed.

“Houston, we have a problem.”

All that planning, all that preparation, the harried last minute changes. The product launch ‘event’.

Then, whew, it’s over. Watch it sail forth like a balloon released in the park, bidding the new product a farewell with little consideration of where – how – when – it lands.

Product launches are critical, and by and large there is a critical date or time attached to the launch, the GA (general availability), the press tour, the cocktail party, the trade show demo. All this requires planning, preparation, and harried last minutes adjustments to the plan. But then what?

Without proper consideration of the next steps, the product is just as likely to fade as that balloon will drift to the ground. A product launch is not the end to itself, but rather should be treated not as balloons but like launches of space craft, the start of greater exploration and understanding of the world around it. Product refinements are determined, distribution strategies adjust, the environment changes.

Or not.

Your launch can resemble a balloon release, a faint effort without consideration for the direction the winds may take it, hoping as we do that the winds will be favorable and our carefully planned launch will result in organic interest.

Treat your launches like a rocket, with the fanfare and resources required not only to capture the imagination, but with a longer term plan in mind for long-term revenue contribution, expanding market share, and to continue to address the problem it was created to solve.

That requires an additional step, but offers a giant leap in the promise a new product can have on the bottom line.

An Old School Measurement Discounts the Internet

In my salad days selling radio, one of the compelling reasons for radio was its influence on individuals at the point closest to the point of sale – that is, in the car on their way to go shopping. It intimated radio’s conversion - the power of radio to convert listeners to buyers. A recent survey took a similar notion – influence on the consumer’s buying decision – and it doesn’t look good for new media.

Regarding electronics, "The Internet and Consumer Choice” study from the Pew Internet & American Life Project found that just 27% of mobile phone sales were significantly impacted by the web. The figure was only 23% for real estate, and surprisingly (to me, anyway) only 17% for music choices. (I’m a big fan of Pandora.com and its ability to introduce new artists, so perhaps I’m a bit of an early adopter there.)

Still, the role of the internet in researching purchases has not changed – 90% of respondents indicated that they still use the web for product research. For marketers, that means that on the web, content is still king – and that market awareness, visibility, credibility and brand building are critical on product websites. Conversion, however, appears to remain elusive.

Think radio. My former employers would love me for that plug.

Green is the new green

From my office in McKinney, Texas, where the city slogan is “Unique By Nature” and recent commercial developments include a LEEDS-certified Wal-Mart, an office building with their own rainwater cistern, and a Toyota dealership that used recycled materials in the construction of the building, I cannot help but recognize that the once nascent green movement trend is now a fully fledged market force.

Of course, you didn’t need me to tell you that. If you are like most Americans, you likely made a green-focused buying decision in just the past few days.

Time was when status was flaunted with clothing stitched with the right logo, cars sporting the correct nameplate, and even dogs of the proper pedigree. Today, status is increasingly conveyed not by the green spent but the green saved – both eco-logically and eco-nomically. This is a new culture of conspicuous non-consumption.

From tags on our emails imploring recipients to consider a tree before printing an email (whatever happened to the ‘paperless office’, anyway?) to organic household cleaners and hybrid vehicles, a product’s “environmental impact” has seen a spike as a key decision-making factor for consumers. But how committed are we to green products? After all, Americans tend to read diet books instead of dieting – do we also buy green products instead of truly living green?

A 2007 study by the New York Times indicated that only 36% of buyers of the Toyota Prius said that gas mileage was a factor in the decision. Moreover, fully 51% of Prius owners indicated that their purchase was fueled (no pun intended) by the fact that the Prius “makes a statement about me”. So, if we were to extrapolate this to all green-based purchase decisions, what does this mean for marketers? It means green claims are more at risk, not less, in the face of such (currently, anyway) superficial commitment. After all, if you’ve made a purchase as a personal statement, you don’t want to later find out that the product against which you leveraged your valuable personal image is in fact a fraud. Under these circumstances, the credibility of your product's 'green-ness' is additionally critical as it makes your environmental claims more subject to rumor, innuendo, and the whims of fashion. Marketers using ‘green’ claims to sell more product without credible evidence to support the messaging are subject to a backlash that could deleteriously impact the product, related products, the company and even the more established green movement.

Here then, from Environmental Leader, are five guidelines for effective environmental marketing:

1. 70% of Americans say quantifying the actual environmental impact of a product or service is influential in their purchasing decisions, so make specific claims about the quantitative impact of your green approach.
   
2. 74% of Americans indicate that a connection between the product/service and the environmental issue influences their purchasing decisions, so stay relevant regarding landfill waste, ozone, or emissions.
   
3. Make the claim and the support of it visible. Americans reach out to websites and product packaging for information.
   
4. Like all marketing messages, make it consistent across all language, images and branding activities.
   
5. Communications that include some sense of context, as well as a “work in progress” tone, will be more credible and less subject to criticism than claims suggesting that a product is the answer to all society’s ills. Even cereal companies claim that their product is only a part of a healthy breakfast!

Green is the new green. But tread carefully or it could become the new red. As in ink.

UBS: Uncertain Brand Strategy?

Peter Kurer, chairman of the bank UBS, which is arguably the world’s largest wealth manager and the bank most highly leveraged in sub-prime mortgage loans, was recently quoted by Reuters as suggesting that the damage to their reputation (read, brand) from the sub-prime mess will “go away after two or three years”.

That’s not brand management, that’s brand abdication. “Goes away?” Brand reputations don’t “go away”, they are merely replaced by new perceptions. What has Kurer in mind for replacing a brand perception damaged by $37 billion dollars in asset write-downs and two recent requests for emergency cash infusions?

Time heals all wounds? Not so fast.

Small gods

I recently discovered that a friend considers himself a Luddite because he has so far resisted the seemingly inescapable social pressure to own a mobile phone.

Having just returned from CTIA, where the discussion among the assembled wireless companies and network equipment providers was once again on the subject of providing more data access, services, collaboration on mobile devices - and I feel somewhat like an anthropologist among the crowds because I still know at least one 18-49 year old without mobile service at all. That's right, forget mobile internet and collaboration apps... he is lacking even simple mobile voice communication.

Actually, I am very sympathetic - and in fact envious - of my friend's postion on mobile phones. As Jerome Lawrence wrote for the play Inherit The Wind, "Progress has never been a bargain. You have to pay for it. You can have a telephone, but you lose privacy and the charm of distance. You may conquer the air, but birds will lose their wonder and the clouds will smell of gasoline."

Today we clone livestock and can grow a heart in a petri dish. We 'google' or 'wiki' information at our fingertips and can quickly become a skeptic, if not an expert, on any topic under the sun. We live and work in orbit 220 miles above the earth. We TIVO our favorite programs and thus appear to control the fabric of time. This week, a 'man' even announced his pregnancy.

Mobile phones have already allowed us to master the concept of being omnipresent. Success with these other endeavors will bring us closer to be omnipotence too. Small gods, each one of us.

So I cut my friend a break. Those who refuse the latest gadgets aren't Luddites. Just human.

D'oh!

Have you seen the the WaMu ad with the bald customer who, excited at the 'free services' at Washington Mutual (WaMu), fantisizes about driving a sporty ragtop as his hair grows - then billows - in the open air?

It disturbs me on so many levels.

The brief CGI sequence where his follicles are seen growing out of his scalp gives me the willies, plus I'm not certain the point of trying to convince people that a large bank will excite them. Beside the fact that it is a totally unreasonable claim - I mean, its a bank, not a Disneyland e-ride. Why is that a critical brand message anyway, given the country's current financial meltdown? Credibility, stability, authority, yes. Excitement? That's the last thing I want from my bank.

Now, adding insult to stupidity, CNBC's Jane Wells reports they've co-opted Homer Simpson, the icon of American stupidity, by trademarking the term Whoo-hoo (spelled intentionally with the 'h' as to not to be conflict with Homer's trademark widely known 'Woo-hoo' - honestly, look it up on their website, "Whoo-hoo" with a 'TM') and posted it visibly on billboards in bright colors all over urban America.

I must've missed that episode... "Mmm, donuts" I remember, "Mmm, beer" I recall seeing several times, but the episode where Homer and Bart go to make a deposit and Homer groans, "Mmm...WaMu Free Checking™ account with one style of check for free. WaMu will not charge ATM fees for cash withdrawals, but non-refundable ATM operator fees may apply. Foreign currency exchange and transaction fees may apply to wires and card transactions. Other banks involved in wire transfer may also charge fees. If your account is open and in good standing on your anniversary date you’ll receive a $0.03 reward for each Debit MasterCard® purchase transaction made within the last year up to a $250 reward. Ask about other fees applicable to your account."

Nope, I missed that one. Right along with my confidence in WaMu.

George Carlin - Visionary

"If you nail two things together that have never been nailed together before . . . some shmuck will buy it from you."

George Carlin uttered these words thirty years ago, and the only thing this visionary was missing from that statement, in itself an abbreviated marketing plan, was the question of distribution.

The cyber flea-market that is eBay, folks, I have now realized, is the answer to Carlin's distribution problem. Its the most effective method of distribution since Sam Walton sold his Ben Franklin franchises. It's toast with Elvis' image, its a box of rocks, its baby naming rights. Most recently, it is a cornflake in the shape of the great state of Illinois: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/odd_illinois_corn_flake.

There is no harm in listing the item for sale (although let's hope it was done during one of eBay's free listing promotions) but it is in the buying I find questionable. After all, I don't think there is a corn flake made that doesn't resemble one of the plains states. I mean, come on, people, its CORN. It's in the DNA of a flake!

Or is it Obama-mania?

Either way, add Carlin to legendary names like Ogilvy, Porter, and Godin. Pure genius.

When did the guys from Delta House start running Microsoft?

"Fat, dumb, and stupid is no way to go through life, son."

These immortal words, uttered by Dean Wormer in the classic Animal House, could be applied collectively to many companies today. Many come to mind, the most obvious is Microsoft, where last year in the rush to get a new product launched, it wasn't so much 'fat, dumb and stupid' so much as 'hubris, avarice, and... okay, stupidity'. It isn’t often easy to distinguish between those three. Too often, all are a part of a lousy decision, and the launch of Vista illustrates all three.

Twelve months following the launch of the Vista operating system there remains a significant reluctance among consumers and enterprises to ‘upgrade’ to the new operating system. Heads in the sand, Redmond executives are quick to suggest that price alone is a deterrent to sales. Yet anyone who knows anyone who has used the operating system likely knows one or more of the dozens of horror stories associated with Vista. In short, the stories caught fire and the Vista brand now precedes itself. No amount of new pricing strategies will change that.

In recent court documents stemming from a class action lawsuit, it is discovered that even Microsoft’s own executives were victims of Vista, either through a lack of drivers for peripherals, certification of underpowered hardware, or a host of other issues common to all Vista users… the executive types from Redmond voiced their frustrations in revealing internal emails obtained by the court.

The reason for the failure of Vista is, as stated above, actually three-fold: hubris, avarice, and stupidity. According to a recent article in the New York Times, all three were in play in Redmond at the time before, during and after the launch.
Hubris:
In the run-up to launch, Microsoft lowered the requirements for hardware, changing required wording on the ubiquitous sticker from “Vista Ready” to “Vista Capable”. (The latter is actually on the notebook on which this is being typed. I run XP, as after having deloused a neighbor’s Vista machine, I elected to stay with what I know).

Avarice:
Internal documents obtained through the legal action reveal that the decision to dumb-down the hardware specifications faces even internal protest in Redmond, including, according to the Times article, Anantha Kancherla, who as a Microsoft program manager was in a position to know that the configuration was so minimal that “even a piece of junk will qualify.”

Stupidity:
Anticipating customer revolt after the hardware requirements were compromised, Microsoft’s own staff prepared for the certain complaints in internal discussions, including a comment from a Microsoft sales manager who wisely – and obviously – wrote, “It would be a lot less costly to do the right thing for the customer now, than to spend dollars on the back end trying to fix the problem.”

It’s too late for Vista, and my humble prediction is that it will go away and undergo a retooling - perhaps a later integration of key features into a different OS release. (There is precedent for a failed OS... anyone running ‘Windows Me’? Didn’t think so.) As for Microsoft, to borrow another Animal House reference, they are now on "double secret probation" with the marketplace. Microsoft needs to be schooled in the threat posed by its competitors – not the least of which include Google, and of course, open source. The days when consumers would accept whatever Redmond dished out are past . Vista is just a symptom of the whole of the Microsoft brand.

To paraphrase Deam Wormer, “Hubris, avarice, and stupidity are no way to run a company, son.”

The British are clicking! The British are clicking!

According to a recent report by eMarketer, the British are embracing digital technology - notably e-commerce - at quite a clip. "Britain has one of the most experienced and active online populations in the world," says Karin von Abrams, eMarketer Senior Analyst, and “confidence in e-commerce is high.” Apparently in 2007 nearly 37 million Brits went online each month, or about 60% of the population, with estimates of 70% in four years.

Notably, the report indicates that 40% of 2008 online sales in Western Europe come from the UK. The UK is expected to represent the greatest share of the European market for years to come, even as the continent catches up. The report's author Von Abrams suggests that the island geography presents a long tradition of catalog shopping that "has contributed to the practice of online buying".

Important to marketers is the insight that the British are very confident of their shopping online, as sellers have established "excellent security for transactions and reliable delivery services ... and online prices are very competitive, particularly for books, travel tickets and items bought at auction sites."

Low price, buyer confidence, convenience. No surprises, really, just a different venue.

Sir Edmund Hillary, RIP

Sir Edmund Hillary, who in 1953 was the first Western man to summit Everest (his Nepalese Sherpa, Tenzing Norgay, should never go unrecognized) died today.

Many might suggest that he wasn’t the first person to summit Everest, that that honor arguably belongs to George Leigh Mallory, who died in the attempt in 1924. But as significant as Mallory’s attempt was, it is important to remember that the rule for summiting is that a successful effort is measured less by reaching the summit as by the safe return afterward. So it is in mountaineering as in business, the greatest leaders are trailblazers known as much for their own accomplishments as the opportunities they create for others, the imagination they spark in us, and the possibilities they inspire among us all.

It is hard to imagine that the tallest peak on earth was conquered only as recently as just 55 years ago. But almost as proof of the impact of Hillary's pioneering spirit on others, it is perhaps even more difficult to comprehend that the moon was conquered a mere 15 years after Hillary’s summit here on terra firma. I would suggest that the indomitable spirit of Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay certainly fed the spirit of our space program as much - as if not more - than the competition we felt from the Russian launch of Sputnik.

Just as Hillary had his moment, business leaders today have an opportunity to leave their mark on history – but they should also learn from that humble New Zealand beekeeper that the larger impact they can make is through leading by example, taking risks and inspiring their team toward their own, as Jim Collins (Built To Last) would have it, “Big Hairy Audacious Goal”.

As George Mallory proved, driven men are remembered for the risks they take and the accomplishments the master. But it was Sir Edmund Hillary who proved that leadership is not only about reaching the peak, but about coming down off the mountain, and by doing so, showing others the way and encouraging them toward their own personal summits.