In which he foretold the future.

So, about a year ago, I posted an entry in response to a survey from Chief Executive Magazine regarding my prognostications for the year just past. I offered my learned opinion, shared it with you, and now, in the interest of full disclosure (not to mention I'm too busy and not clever enough to come up with an original end-of-year post) here's the results:

I said:

On December 31, 2009:
Dow Jones (currently at 8,932) will be at 9621 points
Oil (currently at $40.50) will be $59 per barrel
Interest Rates (the Fed Funds Rate, currently at 1.00%) will be: 1.00%

Actually, on December 28, 2009:
Dow Jones (currently at 8,932) is at 10,547 points
Oil (currently at $40.50) is at $78 per barrel
Interest Rates (the Fed Funds Rate, currently at 1.00%) is at: .50%

Prediction comments:
(I said) Uncertainty is driving the market and the economy; once some certainty arrives with new administration - for good or bad - wild swings will stabilize and the widely oversold market and general malaise will slowly lift.
What happened:
Uncertainty was driving the market and the economy; but any sliver of not-bad, or less-bad news, swung the pendulum back just as wildly as the markets moved to cover shorts and other dubious financial mechanisms. The seating of a new administration, alas, had nothing to do with it as the market didn't settle for months after the inauguration.

Confidence comments:
(I said) Business decision-makers will become comfortable de-coupling their decisions in the real world from abstractions like the Dow. But once that fog clears, the impact of government intervention on national debt and as a general signal of the new regulatory environment will be a drag on growth.
What happened:
Ooo. Seems I was on the money; particularly regarding new regulations - and predicted tax law changes. Yet something went unsaid - the new normal of a higher savings rate, less consumer spending on credit, and general 'new religion' took hold on main street.

So there you go, there's a lot more to the year past than a brief blog post, and others would question some of my inferences, but in the end I was more pessimistic than necessary - or perhaps just more realistic - about the real state of the 'main street' economy. But the reality is far more immediate than Wall Street prognostications... to paraphrase Ronald Reagan, "Are you better off today than you were a year ago?"

Happy New Decade.